Probability

The Fields of Medicine And Health Are Based On Probabilities

The Universe Appears To Work According To 'Probabilities'

Putting 'Probabilities' To Your Best Advantage...As An Individual-

---The term 'probability' means the 'odds' or 'chances' or 'likelihood' that something would or would not occur.

---Just about everything that occurs in Nature occurs via probabilities. In other words, there are no 'absolutes' or 'definites' for things to occur.
---...For example, at one end of the extreme I might drop a cup, and it seems just about absolute that it will fall to the ground and shatter into many pieces. We would say that the 'probability' or 'likelihood' or 'odds' for the cup to hit the floor and shatter is just about 100%, or as close to 100% as you can get.
---...On the other hand, I might ask, "What is the 'probability' or 'likelihood' or 'odds' that the shattered pieces of the cup lying on the floor will come together and fly up to reform a cup in my hand, the exact opposite. Common sense would tell us that the probability is just about zero...0%.

---Strangely enough a very valid field of physics known as 'Quantum Mechanics' would say there is actually a miniscule chance or probability that the pieces of shattered glass would come together to form the cup, however miniscule that chance might be...who knows, perhaps a trillion trillionth of a percent! And vice versa, quantum mechanics might also say there is a trillion trillionth of a percent that the cup when let go will not fall to the floor and shatter.

---As ludicrous as this might seem, I only give these two extremes so you might understand there is an almost infinite number of probabilities or chances for things to occur in-between two extremes.

---For example, something might have a 2% chance or probability to occur, or a 10% chance...or 50% chance, or 75% or 98% chance.

---Take the field of medical decisions as representative of a more specific examples. One might say such a such a medication has a 75% chance for curing such and such a disease. Simply put that would mean there'd be a 25% chance the disease might not be cured.

---Let's say we have 100 people with the same disease being given the same medication (with all other conditons or circumstances being the same). Common sense would tell you that approximately 75 people would be cured and 25 not cured, or thereabouts. I say 'approximately' and 'thereabouts' since if one actually did such a 'scientific study' on a group of 100 people, maybe 73 would be cured and 27 not cured, or perhaps 79 might be cured in another similar study. If a lot of similar such studies were done and they were averaged out, we might thencome closer and closer to the 75%.

---But to pick out any one given individual from the large group of people with the medication and ask if he or she would turn out to be one of the 75 people who would be cured, one cannot say beforehand. All we can say for any given individual is that they would have a 75% 'probability' or 'likelihood' for being cured. No absolutes.

---In other words, we would have had to show beforehand that for large groups of people being treated, the average 'cure rate' would be 75%, and only then would we be able to say that for any one given individual being treated his or her chance for cure would be 75%. But we could not possibly know beforehand for any given individual if he or she would turn out to be one of the 75 people on the average who would be cured, or on the other hand, if he or she would turn out to be one of the 25 people on the average not being cured! Again, no absolutes.

---'Probabilities,' therefore, work very well for groups of people...but not for individuals.

---And furthermore, the 75% probability for cure or whatever becomes more reliable as the number of studies performed increases. Similarly, if the groups being studied are increased in number from let's say 100 people to 1,000 people or to groups of 10,000 or more people being treated, the reliability of saying there is a 75% cure rate becomes even more and more secure.
---...but again, as always, for the given individual. you cannot know if he or she will be one of those cured. As I said, no absolutes.

---'Probabilities'...this is simply the way the universe 'appears' to work, according to probabilities, not just in medicine, but in all facets and occurrences of all things...(at least that's what quantum mechanics would say, but as you'll see elsewhere in this web site, I have other ideas and theories on these matters and as to the way the 'mind conbtrolling' aspects of the universe and our consciousness work).

---At any rate, as to the all pervasive nature of 'probabilities' throughout the universe, I would ask, "What is the likelihood or probability it will rain tomorrow?" Well, meteorologists would consider the averaged accumulation of past meterorological scientific studies with other related considerations as to the time of year, the date, the location or whatever, and come to a certain statements of 'probability' or 'chance,' so that on a given weather report they might say the 'chance' for rain tomorrow morning is only 20%, but in the afternoon it's about 65%. Again, no absolutes.

---Or, if you go out into the cold without a coat perhaps there'd be a 50% chance you would catch a cold...or if you got into an automobile or took a trip in an airplane, what would be the 'probability' there'd be an accident or a crash?

---Bottom line...everything in the universe works via probabilities.

---I give examples in medicine because people generally persist in thinking-- no matter how illogical it is to do so--that medical decisions and diagnoses and treatments and so forth are often absolutes.
---...This is absolutely not the case. Medicine works via 'probabilities,' as does everything else. We say medicine is not an exact science. But then again, no sciences are exact sciences. Nothing is an exact science!

---So, what's the good with probabilities, you might ask? If they're not exact, what good are they?...especially in medicine when it comes to one's health...and one's life!
---...Very simple. Simply ask youself, for example, when it comes to your chances for having, let's say, a heart attack at some time in your life, what is the probability it will occur?
---...Well, In the United States we might say for a given location and/or population or 'group' of people, the probability for heart attack might have been determined to be, from the averaging out of past studies, let's say 40%. So knowing this you would then ask yourself, "Would I like to be living in a population or group of people with a 40% chance of having a heart attack, or would I rather be living in another population or group of people wherein the probability for heart attack is only 15%"?

---Well, the answer to that's a no brainer. Anybody would rather live in a population of people wherein the chances or probability for having a heart attack (or other disease) is lower, so that as individuals they would be able to reliably say, "My chances for developing a heart attack is only 15%... whereas within the population within which you live, your chances for having a heart attack is 40%"!

---In other words, fifteen people on the average out of a 100 might have a heart attack within the community or population of people within which you logically choose to live (and 85 people might not), and that's a lot better 'odds' or 'probability' than when 40 out of a 100 people would be so striken with disease in the other, statistically unfavorable population.

---Fact is, when it comes to most illnesses or medical conditions, probabilities are often based on lifestyle habits or whatever...so, most importantly, once you know the probabilities for groups of people for any given number of diseases or medical conditions, even though the people in your particular community--or country--do not live in accordance with the favorable probabilities of given lifestyle habits, you as an individual still can.
---...You as an individual can still live your life in accordance with those proven and favorable probabilities. And in doing so you would obviously have afforded youself the decreased chance for this or that heart attack or other disease process or whatever, or even, as you are seeing elsewhere in this web site, you might even have afforded yourself--as I have afforded myself--a more favorable or slower rate at which you might appear to be aging,
---...and all this while people around you are succumbing to this or that disease process while they are also watching their bodies, in futility, deteriorating with age and falling apart...and pathetically they are generally dumbfounded as to why it is happening to them, and ironically, they think they can do nothing about it!

---...Oh, the foolhardiness of a closed mind, unwilling to learn. Fact is, 'you' are in control of your own destiny if you know the 'probabilities.' Just because the people around you are doing themselves in doesn't mean you have to be part of it!

---In short,, the way it really works, the way 'probabilities' work, thank goodness, even though there are never any 'absolutes' for given individuals, but only probabilities, it's better to live within a population of people wherein there is a lower probability for a bad effect to occur. That's just common sense...or at least it should be.

---So, I would ask, why am I always getting people to ask me things like, "Well, how come 'so and so' ate healthy and did healthy things all their life, and still got cancer?" or "How come 'so and so' smoked cigarettes, two packs a day, and lived disease free to 100?" I can't tell you how many people say these and similar things to me.
---...Obviously, the answer lies in 'probabilities.' Of course, you can do everything 'right' and still get the disease. That's probabilities. A certain percentage will get the disease, and a certain percentage will not.
---...And of course you can do everything 'wrong' and not get the disease. That's probabilities also.

---I don't know why I'm repeating this. These things seem so obvious. But nothing says that once you know the favorable probabilities for the overall populations you can't, an an individual, put those probabilities in your favor by conducting your lifestyle accordingly. Need I say this again!